Quarterly Outlooks Page

Vantage Consulting Group often issues an Economic Outlook and Quarterly Review. You may browse most recent Outlooks below.

  • Outlook and Market Review - Second Quarter 2012
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    Summary:

    Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2012 was revised upward to 1.7% from 1.5% in the preliminary announcement by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 2%. Overall, the economy is performing well below the long run average of 3.3% GDP growth...

  • Outlook and Market Review - First Quarter 2012
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    Summary:

    The U. S. economy continues to muddle along as predicted in prior Outlooks. Annualized first quarter GDP growth was 2.2% in preliminary announcements by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, following a weak 1.7% growth for all of 2011. Over the entire “recovery” period starting in the third quarter...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Fourth Quarter 2011
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    Summary:

    Based on preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy grew only 1.7% in 2011 following 3% growth in 2010. For the fourth quarter of 2011, the preliminary economic growth estimate was 2.8% but roughly two-thirds of that growth came from inventory accumulation. Consumer...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Third Quarter 2011
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    Summary:

    In the first revision of third quarter GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. economy grew at only 2% in the third quarter.  For the year, the real GDP growth was 1.5%, which is well below normal growth in the third year of an expansion.  Consumers led the way in the third...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Second Quarter 2011
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    Summary:

    The economy continues to muddle along with low growth and high unemployment in what hardly feels like the start of the third year of a recovery. According to the advanced announcement by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, second quarter GDP grew at an anemic 1.3% rate (which is already being...

  • Outlook and Market Review - First Quarter 2011
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    Summary:

    In the first quarter of 2011 the U.S. economy suffered through unusually bad weather, unrest in the Middle East, disruptions due to the earthquake and nuclear disasters in Japan, and spikes in oil prices. Real GDP growth for the quarter was a disappointing 1.75%, according to the advance...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Fourth Quarter 2010
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    Summary:

    The economy is showing signs of a stronger recovery after approximately a year and a half of recession followed by another year and a half of an unusually weak recovery. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter was 2.8% following a 2.6% real...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Third Quarter 2010
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    Summary:

    The economy remained soft in the third quarter with real GDP growth of 2.5%, according to the revised estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Advanced estimates are constructed without data for the last month of the quarter. Growth must exceed 2.5% to gain any ground on the employment front...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Second Quarter 2010
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    Summary:

    The economy is in a “soft” and “fragile” condition relative to more normal performance in a recovery. GDP grew at a real rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, according to the advanced estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. There is a good chance that second quarter growth will be revised...

  • Outlook and Market Review - First Quarter 2010
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    Summary:

    Real GDP rose at an annualized 3.2% rate in the first quarter of 2010, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP grew 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and has now increased for three straight quarters, offering confirmation that the recession ended last...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Fourth Quarter 2009
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    Summary:

    The advanced announcement of 5.7% real GDP growth was surprisingly strong and exceeded the consensus estimate by over a full percentage point. Part of the robust growth occurred when third quarter growth was revised downward, moving about 1.5% from the third to the fourth quarter. While the...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Third Quarter 2009
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    Summary:

    The third quarter advanced estimate of 3.5% GDP growth exceeded expectations. Stimulus fed growth was robust partly because it bounced from such a low level. Revisions will bring the rate back closer to 3%. The initial GDP report assumed an $8.4 billion drop in nondurable goods inventories...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Second Quarter 2009
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    Summary:

    The U.S. economy continued to contract in the second quarter with a 1% decline in real GDP following the revised declines of 6.43%, 5.37%, and 2.68% in the prior three quarters. If the downturn ends with the second quarter of 2009, the peak to trough decline in the economy would reach 3.9%. The...

  • Outlook and Market Review - First Quarter 2009
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    Summary:

    The economy shrank by 6.14% in the first quarter, based on the preliminary announcement by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The dismal performance of the economy in the first quarter follows a similar decline of 6.34% in the fourth quarter, which was revised downward from its preliminary...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Fourth Quarter 2008
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    Summary:

    According to advanced estimates, the economy shrank at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, following a .5% decline in the third quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the economy contracted .2%. Housing, investment, and consumption continue to slide even as the money supply and bank...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Third Quarter 2008
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    Summary:

    The economy shrank by .3% in the third quarter of 2008 according to the advanced estimate. Most analysts expect a revision toward an even weaker performance. Unemployment, which normally lags economic performance, increased to 6.5% in October from 6.1% in September. Nonfarm payrolls declined by...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Second Quarter 2008
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    Summary:

    Advanced estimates show that the economy’s GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the second quarter of 2008 following a revised growth rate of .9% in the first quarter. For the past year, GDP grew 1.8%, which is well below a target rate of 3% for sustainable growth. Recently revised data from the...

  • Outlook and Market Review - First Quarter 2008
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    Summary:

    The economy grew .6% in real terms during the first quarter of 2008 based on preliminary announcement by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. First quarter growth almost matched the .58% revised growth of the fourth quarter of 2007. The two back-to-back quarters of anemic growth are not likely to be...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Fourth Quarter 2007
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    Summary:

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate of 0.64% annualized real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2007. The advanced estimate is well below consensus forecasts, suggesting that the economy came out of 2007 in worse shape than most analysts expected. While growth...

  • Outlook and Market Review - Third Quarter 2007
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    Summary:

    The 3.9% advanced estimate for third quarter real GDP growth exceeded expectations by almost a full percentage point. After revisions, second quarter GDP growth was 3.6%. GDP growth for both of the last two quarters exceeded generally accepted targets for sustainable expansion. Private non-...

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